When "social activists" do this (and I am not so much talking about Jim here as the "progressives" I know), there is the added insult of hypocrisy; anyone has the right to be a curmudgeonly isolationist reactionary, but then don't tell me you care about the fate of the planet and oppressed peoples and rainforests and bunny rabbits. And these same "progressives" will give the Palestinians endless chances to stop acting like thugs, on very little evidence, and yet are indecently hasty to write off the Iraqis (and with smug satisfaction!) on the basis of one election, even though the Iraqis have in three short years demonstrated more desire and effort to create a lawful society than the Palestinians have since Arafat came back from Tunis.

Anyway, regardless of the outcome of this election, unless the new government attempts to shut down the proliferation of news and opinion and global communication that Iraq has grown accustomed to, there's no reason this shouldn't continue to be true:

This relentless progress of democracy is causing quite a commotion throughout the Arab world. While it is fashionable to denounce the American presence in Iraq, and what the Americans were doing, the Arab language buzz on the net is going in unexpected directions. Because of al Jazeera and the Internet, young Arabs everywhere are not only able to observe what it happening in Iraq, but to discuss it with young Iraqis.

These discussions are not noted much in the West, because they generally take place in Arabic, and often via email and listservs. The non-Iraqi Arabs are impressed at the proliferation of media in Iraq, and the eagerness of Iraqis to vote, and make democracy work. The economic growth in Iraq is admired, and is already attracting entrepreneurs from other Arab countries. The more cynical non-Iraqis believe that it will all come to nothing, and that another Saddam will eventually emerge and shut down all this democratic nonsense, as is the case in most of the Arab world.

But the pessimists appear to be in the minority. Arabs are tired of dictators, economic stagnation, the corruption and living in a police state. Moreover, there’s a nimble quality in Arab thinking that allows them to simultaneously blame the Americans for going into Iraq, and praising the result.

I'm sure the Arab pessimists are out in force this week, along with their Western fellow travelers. But if Iraq continues to have a relatively free press, if the structure of the Parliament allows for minority representation, and most importantly if the judiciary retains its independence, then Iraq will continue to act as a model for democracy in the Arab world, regardless of the platform of the party in power.

Those are big "ifs." As specialists in nation-building say, it's easy to hold one election, the real test is if the second election results in a peaceful transfer of power. But we simply don't know yet.

From everything I have read and heard, including repeated polls over the last three years, I am confident that this is true: Most Iraqis, even fundamentalist Shiites, really really don't want their country to be a client state of Iran. Many of those who voted for the Shiite list out of insecurity still have a stake in economic growth and interaction with the Western world. Even those who claim to want a strongman like Saddam aren't going to give up their new cellphones and modems without a struggle. And now their whole region is not only watching, but chatting with them about the process as it unfolds.

Pandora's box has been opened.