« Why Hizb'allah Now? | Home | This week's pro- and anti-Israel rallies »
July 19, 2006
Goodbye Palestinian state
Things that make you go hmmmmm:
One of the implications of the current fighting is that a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is no longer strategically viable for Israel. Missiles with a 40 kilometer (24 mile) range can strike most Israeli population centers from launching sites within the West Bank. Similar missiles fired from sites in the Gaza Strip could hit most of the remaining Israeli centers. Missiles with a 200 kilometer (120 mile) range can strike all of Israel from launching sites in the Palestinian West Bank.Does that mean it's either occupation or transfer for the Palestinians? I guess Hizbullah and Hamas aren't really their friends, are they?The 40 kilometer missiles can be deployed and fired with no warning. The 200 kilometer missiles can be deployed and fired with only limited warning. The result is a viable Palestinian option to wage war on Israel via a missile siege that supplements the suicide bomber attacks. This also negates many of the security benefits Israel hoped to gain via withdrawal from Gaza and most of the West Bank and construction of barriers separating the two populations.
Hezbollah and evolving missile technology have just killed the two-state peace plan. There is now only room for one semi-strategically viable state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
RELATED: Intercepting and destroying rockets being smuggled into Lebanon from Syria.
Judith | 07/19/06 at 05:12 PM | Categories: - Gaza and Palestine
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.keshertalk.com/cgi-bin/mtb.cgi/5248
Blogs which link to Goodbye Palestinian state:
» Good-bye to all that from Out on a limb at Mike Lief.com
Via Kesher Talk comes the question, "Could the Hamas/Hezbollah rocket attacks mean the end of a Palestinian state?" One of the implications of the current fighting is that a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is no longer strategica... [Read More]
Tracked on July 20, 2006 12:30 PM
» Thomas Friedman on Lebanon from Kesher Talk
I just watched 30 minutes of Tim Russert interviewing Thomas Friedman about Lebanon. Interestingly, I agree with much of what he said - well, there's a certain amount of vaccum out there currently sucking out the hot air in liberal... [Read More]
Tracked on July 23, 2006 07:01 PM
Comments
Transfer, please.
Most of the Palestinian arabs in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are "refugees" according to international law.
That being the case, this means that they are not in their permanent homes.
Why not resettle them in permanent homes in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria or elsewhere under Muslim hegemony? Why must these people who are in their temporary homes be settled in Israeli land west of the Jordan River?
It's time to revisit the Alon Plan, I think.
Piranha | July 19, 2006 11:54 PM
It just means the Pal state will have to be subject to sensible constraints.
1. Israeli control over the border with Jordan, through which any missiles would have to be smuggled for a period of several years, to be followed by some kind of international control.
2. Commitment on the part of the international community (Which mainly means the US, for these purposes) that any appearance of missiles on the West Bank would constitute Casus Belli for Israel, whether or not said missiles are fired.
3. An adjustment of borders - Israel to annex Maaleh Adumim, Gush Etzion, and Ariel, to improve its strategic position (and yes, I know that doesnt solve the range problem for katyushas, etc, but it helps the overall strategic problem)
Now the crazy left will call this a "bantustan" not a state, but we are adult enough to ignore them, arent we?
liberalhawk | July 20, 2006 01:20 PM
1.Thats true of Gaza, but not the West Bank. Most West Bankers are NOT '48 refugees or their children.
2. Allon plan did not intend transfer. It called for dividing the WB into cantons, with Arab cantons to be attached to Jordan
3. This may actually help the path toward a Pal state. Hamas and Hezbollah, by their rejectionism are the main obstacles to Pal statehood. By destroying Hezbollah, Israel is eliminating an obstacle
liberalhawk | July 20, 2006 01:23 PM
I'm starting to wonder whether, in the end, there won't be two states, or two provinces: Gaza and the West Bank.
Alcibiades | July 20, 2006 01:54 PM
Just so there's no confusion, I meant the Elon Plan, named after Benny Elon. I don't mean the Allon Plan, named after Yigal Allon.
The Elon Plan is at http://www.therightroadtopeace.com/eng/DefaultEng.html
Piranha | July 20, 2006 09:40 PM
Any minute now you'll try to pretend that Israel ever had any interest in a two-state solution.
Israel has had more interest in a genuine two-state solution than any of the other Middle East states, which have never had any. The Arab bloc never recognized the existence of Israel (although a few individual nations did). The PA and Hamas never did.
You can't have a 2 state solution if an entire region doesn't accept the existence of one of them.
Judith | July 21, 2006 01:25 AM
This problem seems to be solving itself - the years of Israeli "occupation" brought such a marked rise in living standards that there were 20-30,000 illegals *immigrants* from Jordan and other countries every year.
Now, after almost a decade of Arab control, and the resulting chaos, graft, and thuggery - there is a net emigration of 20-30,000 a year. The ingathering of the "Palestinian diaspora" has not materialized - surprise, surprise - and the demographic threat has already been debunked.
Ariel Sharon first made a name for himself by defending pre-67 Israel from attacks on what is now the area of Ben-Gurion airport. Back then this was "disputed territories". Now all these areas are part of consensus Israel.
It's the same war, stretched out over almost a century. And the Arabs will at some point miss their last opportunity, to paraphrase Abba Eban.
Ben-David | July 21, 2006 02:58 AM
Liberalhawk, Actually, the majority of Palestinian arabs in the West Bank may well be officially refugees.
According to UNRWA, there were (as of March 31, 2005) 687,542 "Palestine Refugees Registered with UNRWA (PRRUs) in the West Bank and 961,645 PRRUs in Gaza, for a total number of 1,649,187 PRRUs in the West Bank and Gaza. By contrast, Bennett Zimmerman's study argues that there are 2,500,000 Palestinian arabs in the West Bank and Gaza in 2004. Therefore, approximately 65% of all Palestinian arabs living in the West Bank and Gaza are refugees in temporary homes.
In my opinion, these refugees should be resettled in Jordan (already home to 1,780,701 PRRUs, according to UNRWA, Lebanon (home to 400,582 PRRUs), Syria (home to 424,650 PRRUs), or elsewhere in the Arab countries of the Middle East.
Piranha | July 21, 2006 10:58 AM
Judith - I don't deny that most of the region has in general had no interest in the Israeli half of a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem. But neither has Israel generally had any serious intention of recognising the Palestinian half. So everyone wants a two-state solution except all the countries in the area affected. Not a recipe for success.













![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keshertalk.com/nav-commenters.gif)