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January 12, 2007
Demographics Rule
In my opinion, something that will determine the political stance of China in the coming decades not only will be the path of its industrial revolution, and its sizable population, but the very pertinent fact of the huge and growing population disparity between men and women:
China will have 30 million more men of marriageable age than women by 2020, making it difficult for them to find wives, according to a national report.By way of example, think of the social instability in Moslem countries, where wealthy men often possess several wives, making the marriage market far more difficult for poorer men. Similarly, years ago I read an article discussing how the economics in Middle Eastern Arab countries - and particularly Gaza and the West Bank - was forcing higher and higher the age at which men married for the first time. In some cases creating very long engagements. In other cases, it heightened large age differentiations in couples, a man in his 40s marrying a girl in her late teens or early 20s.The gender imbalance could lead to social instability, the report by the State Population and Family Planning Commission warned.
It's little discussed in the MSM, but it strikes me that this is a societal failure which has silently bolstered the rise of fundamentalism.
Young men at their peak deprived of licit sexual activity abet a militant posture within government.
We'll have to await to see what happens in China, but this has been a disaster in the making for decades. Not to mention the human tragedy of aborting millions upon millions of female fetuses.
Alcibiades | 01/12/07 at 12:18 PM | Categories: - Pacific Rim
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Comments
Is it possible that something other that militancy may happen, that China will see a tremendous creative flowering of gay culture, as men turn to other men given the absence of women?
Maybe? Probably not? No way, Jose?
Van | January 13, 2007 12:34 AM
Excellent question. Chinese orphanages are also full of (go figure) unwanted girls, and I know lots of Americans who have adopted them. It is hard to figure out how Chinese demographics will affect the political future, but as to the military consequences and the comparison with Islam, there are important differences. Islam tends to produce large families, but China no longer has the cannon fodder she had during the Korean war. There will be a large pool of frustrated single men. But even so, the Chinese who are betting the whole family future on one son are liable to have reservations, shall we say, about risking him in some ill-considered military venture.
Mike Walsh, MM ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keshertalk.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 13, 2007 09:57 AM
I forgot to mention: The Roman Catholic seminaries in China would have even more seminarians in them but for the fact that the Party restricts access, as they fear any rival source of authority, remembering especially what happened in Poland and the effect that had on the demise of the USSR. Now there's a political consequence to think about.
Mike Walsh, MM | January 13, 2007 10:09 AM
Mark Steyn's book jokingly predicts a global hook-up between the lonesome men of China and the surplus women of Russia.
someone | January 13, 2007 12:03 PM
Or perhaps the well known surplus of Iranian whores in Europe - that Spengler writes about - can move to China instead for better renumeration.
alcibiades | January 13, 2007 12:50 PM
Or perhaps the well known surplus of Iranian whores in Europe - that Spengler writes about - can move to China instead, for better renumeration.
alcibiades | January 13, 2007 12:52 PM
