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January 17, 2007
House of Saud: friend or foe?
Mary didn't think much of President Bush for holding hands with Saudi Prince Whats-His-Name. I pointed out that oil prices dropped the next day. I don't think Bush holds hands with the Saudis because he likes them, but because it works. Mary thinks we should just invade and take over their oil fields. (But she's way more ballsy than me, in general. . . . ) I am more likely to imagine intricate machinations behind the scenes, camoflaged by ostensibly really dumb statements by Bush, Rice and Co. For example, the machinations envisioned by this Instapundit reader:
Iran desperately needs oil revenue. Chavez and Ahmadinejad are touring the world announcing anti-American initiatives and kicking out foreign investors because in the past these were good ways to rile up the oil markets.The world is awash in oil right now. Saudi Arabia intends to collapse the price and cause a great deal of damage to their enemies in Iran, and they won't have to fire a shot. As a bonus, Chavez in Venezuela will also be gravely damaged. I believe this is all political strategy, and I believe the Bush Administration is coordinating it with the Saudis to eliminate two threats at once.
I like to think that could be true.
PS. Another example of the US and the Sauds squeezing Iran from both sides?
PPS. Or is this state of affairs really accidental, as Edward Luttwak claims? One of the many goals of the Iraq War was to destabilize the Middle East. Ideally, as a milestone on the way to a different kind of stability, but one argument in favor of the war (and the Gaza Disengagement, by the way) was that taking the initiative in destabilizing the region might create new problems, but they couldn't be any worse than the same old problems, which were unsolvable and just as threatening. So (thought both Bush and Sharon) why not kick over the card table and play a whole new game, where there would be a glimmer of a chance at a different outcome?
A common denominator of all these ancdotes is that the days of even a pretense of a monolithic Muslim Middle Eastern bloc are over. I don't think any of these regimes are even bothering to mouth the rhetoric any more. All the cards are in the air now, and it's not because Bush accidentally bumped into the card table on his way to the john.
Judith | 01/17/07 at 07:24 AM | Categories: WWIV
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Comments
My father, z"l, always said that he would rather be lucky than smart.
Robert Schwartz ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keshertalk.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 17, 2007 10:37 AM
Mary thinks we should just invade and take over their oil fields. (But she's way more ballsy than me, in general. . . . )
It wouldn't take balls to invade Saudi Arabia. They have the most pathetic military force in the Middle East and the majority of the muslim world hates them. The only power they have is the power we give them.
But I never thought it would be a good idea to invade just Saudi Arabia. I only noted that the Middle East was like a hornets nest - if you're going to deal with one part of it, you basically have to be prepared to remove the whole thing.
Back in 2002-3, i assumed that if we invade just one country, like, say, Iraq, it would be like poking a hornet's nest with a stick. Every other terror supporting nation in the area would send in the insurgents in an effort to destroy Iraq (and to injure us) by waging a messy urban terror war. That's how these terror states fight their wars. If we were going to invade Iraq, we would have to destroy every terror supporting group in the area - including Iran and Saudi Arabia - to prevent the send-in-the-insurgents tactic.
If we weren't prepared to do that, I thought that we shouldn't go in at all. It didn't make sense to try to impose a democracy on Iraq before we got rid of all the fascists in the area. It would be like trying to impose a Marshall plan on Northern Africa while the Nazis were still in the process of overtaking the rest of the world. It wouldn't spread democracy and we'd get our as*es kicked.
In any case, I've sort of abandoned the Saudi meme for the reasons described here.
mary | January 17, 2007 04:33 PM
