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February 15, 2007
Lebanon holds on
Four friends who have lived in and written about Lebanon during the last few years of political upheaval:
Michael Totten says that Lebanese are resisting falling into civil war, in spite of provocation from Syria. Even Hezbollah is refusing to take the bait.
What if they declared a war and nobody came? It’s a silly old hippie slogan from the 1960s. That’s how it’s playing out now, though, in the Middle East of all places. Bashar Assad has called a civil war, and no one is coming. . . . for now, even under extraordinary and malevolent pressure from the same foreign dictatorships stirring up hatred and strife in Baghdad, Lebanon isn’t Iraq.
(If Syria is Iran's proxy, then Iran is trying to do in Lebanon exactly what it has been doing in Iraq. So far Lebanon is not Iraq, probably because the Lebanese had a civilized culture for some time to draw on (see Michael's interviews with Lebanese activists Eli Khoury and Walid Jumblatt), and are not recently liberated from a horrific police state, barely able to think for themselves. But give Iraqis credit - they also resisted taking the bait for a long time, and even now most of them refuse to let Iran manipulate them.)
Charles Malik lists the theories about who did the bus bombings.
Lee Smith says (in part, and you should read the whole article):
. . . . The sporadic car bombs in Lebanon these past two years that picked off one or maybe two people, these weren't warnings or even threats. A threat would look something like a large explosion in a Gemmayze bar, a Monot nightclub, or the ABC mall in Ashrafiyeh. Such an attack would kill and maim scores of Lebanese civilians. So far, Asad and his regime have merely been making enough violence to keep their place in the conversation Syria wants to have with Washington about the future of the Middle East. And first on the agenda is Lebanon.So, will the wise men who counsel we sit down and talk with Damascus--the Brzezinskis, the Powells, the Obamas, the Bakers, and Djerejians--will they have the decency at last to recognize what their high-minded posturing can no longer obscure? This is how Syria negotiates, with its knife on the table and dripping with blood.
Or (as a proxy) with nuclear bombs.
However, Tony Badran maintains that - appearances to the contrary - the Euros and the Americans are not about to sell out Lebanon (Again, read the whole thing).
The Democratic congressmen who went to Syria, like Bill Nelson, were very clear that the US will not abandon the Seniora government or Lebanon. That there will be no deal or concessions on "areas where we disagree with Syria." So, unfortunately for Landis and Moubayed, this is hardly Bush's ideological intransigence. This is a matter of consensus, one that includes the main Arab states and Europe.I had quoted what a European diplomat told me, as well as what another European diplomat told al-Hayat:
It's true that Britain, Germany, and Italy consider that the goal of talking to Damascus is to stress the need for it to change its policy in Lebanon and to stop supporting its destabilization, and to encourage it to take constructive steps in this regard and to cooperate with international resolutions. However, the delegates of these states, when they undertake this mission, they end up reaching the same conclusion France reached, and some return with great disappointment with Damascus. . . .
. . . .1- no one is looking to cut deals over Lebanon (Democrats and Europeans), and 2- the Europeans end up reaching the same conclusion as that reached by the Bush administration, France, Saudi Arabia, and Democratic congressmen. Germany's Angela Merkel summed it up rather well yesterday: "[Syria] should have no doubt about the determination of the international community to protect Israel and Lebanon."But hey, don't worry, as [Joshua] Landis and [Sami] Moubayed informed us, that won't stop Assad from murdering as many people as he needs in order to show how "serious" he is about "engagement."
It would be nice to believe the Western powers aren't making like Neville Chamberlain. Hold on, Lebanon, hold on.
Judith | 02/15/07 at 11:20 PM | Categories: WWIV
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