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March 31, 2007
Putting a clock on events
Mark Steyn has consistently had the best commentary on the (latest) Iranian hostage situation.
Look at the timeline 25 years ago:On April 2nd, the Argies seized the Falklands, which were all but undefended.
On April 5th a British task force of over 100 ships and 28,000 men sailed from England for the South Atlantic.In three days! Talk about a rush to war, eh?
Furthermore, because the British were known to be contemplating a credible response, the U.N. – instead of twittering about “grave concern” – passed a resolution on April 3rd ordering Argentina to withdraw from the islands. And that was in the bad old days of the Cold War. Yet, within 24 hours, the Russkies and ChiComs had been prevailed upon not to monkey around.
Just as importantly, all further diplomatic discussion took place while that task force was sailing toward the Falklands, getting closer, day by day, hour by hour. In other words, Mrs. Thatcher put a clock on events – which is the only way to persuade transnational diplomats to get real. Otherwise, they just sit around talking till everyone’s dead – see Darfur, Rwanda, etc – and it’s too late to do anything even if you wanted to.
Mario Loyola, on the casus belli:
Salient points so far. Iran has now been hit with three Security Council resolutions under the U.N. Charter’s Chapter VII, which provides for “Action with Respect to Threats to The Peace, Breaches of The Peace, and Acts of Aggression.” In general terms, the Iranian nuclear program now has the status of a “threat to the peace,” and I would argue that its continued nuclear activities are “an act of aggression.”Article 51 preserves the right of “individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.” The French-language version of Article 51 uses the phrase “aggression” instead of “attack.” We should always understand Article 51 to have that more expansive meaning.
I argue on NRO today that the capture of the British sailors is intimately linked to Iran’s decision to begin withdrawing from the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The capture was also “an armed attack” for purposes of Article 51 of the Charter. And because Article 51 enshrines “collective self-defense,” the United States, as a British ally, can now invoke Article 51 as cover for any military response to the hostage-taking—and to the related nuclear program.
Therefore, we currently have two bases for invoking Article 51. Such should be the broad outlines of the U.S. legal position now. This legal position would have the virtue of corresponding to strategic reality. The Iranians are seeking to acquire a terrifying offensive capability that will ruin the nonproliferation regime, immeasurably strengthen their freedom of action with respect to conventional aggression, and vastly increase the probability of nuclear terrorism down the road. And it is seeking that capability aggressively, with no regard for the legitimate security concerns of other states. As an Iranian nuclear breakout will result in a grave degradation to national security, we are in the logic of self-defense—the essence of Article 51.
Judith | 03/31/07 at 11:27 PM | Categories: - Iran
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Comments
No one wil do anything until America has 250,000 to 1 million dead.
Then half the folks who survive will want to convert to Islam and the other half will blame each other.
Sooner or later someone will get angry enough to strike back. but not until we suffer a grave blow.
In the words of my son's friends and buddies, "It S*cks to be us."
Barry | April 1, 2007 11:36 AM


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