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July 15, 2007
The Surge of Facts
The hawkish blognocenti have been grumbling since the 2004 election about the Administration’s lackadaisiacal approach to explaining and promoting the Iraq War. Yes, Bush has often been eloquent and passionate in laying out the reasons and rationale for deposing Saddam and replacing the typical Middle East strongman regime with a representative government. And it’s not his fault that huge chunks of the mainstream media have been systematically misrepresenting everything he says while giving him as little air time as possible.
But instead of recognizing the necessity to go on the offensive, he has been content to defend his course as though there were no organized campaign to discredit it, and to let his advocates in the blogosphere take up the slack.
Some of us, watching the successful blitzkreig against the Administration’s immigration proposals, decided that the war deserved a similar effort, and it’s finally starting. Better late than never.
Tony Snow, on a conference call with bloggers right now:
We need a surge of facts. That’s one of the things we’re going to be working on. I’m going to be doing it from the podium.... So far we have had very few visuals to confirm what Americans want to believe. We have an amazing and heroic American military... The only way to change public opinion [on Iraq] is to present a fuller, more nuanced and more accurate picture.”“We’re gonna present bad news too. You have to... But it’s a miracle anyone supports the war, based on the characterizations that have been painted.
Snow says he’s going to put up slides, video, and audio on new screens behind him during the daily press briefing. “We’re not gonna spin, but we’re going to provide real hard data.”
Tony, you guys have been doing that. The problem is not that you don’t do it. The problem is that you don’t do it repeatedly and pervasively. You put it out there and go on to the next bit of business, and while your attention is elsewhere, it gets buried under spin. You have to keep keep shoveling it out faster than they pile it up.
Meanwhile, a citizen-led effort akin to the immigration bill campaign is also getting underway, led by Vets for Freedom. This Tuesday July 17th, they launch the "Ten Weeks of Testimony" campaign, sending vets to lobby Congressmen in Washington DC. If you are not a vet and want to help, Call your senators! (If you are thinking of sending emails, the Win the War Campaign suggests using this article for talking points.)
If you are a vet and want to participate, read on. VfF will reimburse you for travel to Washington.
Iraq & Afghanistan Veterans: If you are a veteran and are ready to take a stand and join us on Capitol Hill on July 17, please send an email to Adriel at adriel@vetsforfreedom.org as soon as possible. The email should contain the following 6 points of information:1. Name and basic information (phone number, email, and zip code)
2. Military background (OIF/OEF experience, unit, current status)
3. Home state (and any other states you have lived in)
4. Your most probable means of transportation to Washington, DC
5. A very brief biography (no more than one paragraph)
6. Any questions you might haveWhen Vets for Freedom receives your email, we will email you the following information as soon as possible:
* Time and place for initial link up in Washington, DC (assume between 8—9am)
* Driving directions, maps, and parking instructions
* Basic timeline/instructions for the day (assume day will finish between 5—6pm)
* Other preparation materialsWhen you arrive in Washington, DC on Tuesday morning, you will receive an in-brief and Vets for Freedom you provide you with the following:
* Detailed itinerary (including your office visit schedule, media schedule, and event schedule to visit your member of Congress—everything will be done in groups)
* Latest Iraq news and information
* Capitol Hill map
* Vets for Freedom complementary polo shirt; breakfast and lunch providedSupporters of Our Veterans
You may not be able to make it to Washington, DC, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still support our mission on July 17. You can do the following three things:
1) Donate. As we’ve already mentioned, every dollar donated in the next 4 days will be used to reimburse the travel costs of veterans who will be paying their own way to Capitol Hill.
2) Call your Senator was incredible. Thank you. Thousands of calls were made, and we need to do this again. Reinforce our veterans on Capitol Hill by calling the 2 Senators from your home state on July 17 and telling them to support the troops-and the mission!
Judith | 07/15/07 at 06:40 PM | Categories: - Iraq
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How Al Qaeda is Winning Even as it is Losing, By J.D. Johannes, 11 Jul 2007:
In Iraq, the administration has empowered a general and officer corps capable of winning the war on the ground. Now it must develop the media corps that can win the war on the airwaves. June 2007 saw a dramatic turnaround in our military fortunes, with the insurgents in headlong retreat in Anbar, Baghdad, and Diayala. But al Qaeda continued to dominate its chosen battlefield: America's living rooms.
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But in the flush of battlefield success, public perception of American military progress continued its calamitous decline. According to Pew Research, the percentage of Americans who opine that America's military operations are "going well" slid from 38% in May '07 to 34% in June; those who believe our military operations are "not going well" increased from 57% of respondents to 61%.
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What explains the downtick of confidence against a backdrop of success?
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The ensuing strategy was dictated by weakness. Mass killings of Shi'ite civilians - a tactic designed by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi over the initial protests of the al Qaeda leadership - replaced military confrontation as the insurgency's operational focus. Civilian atrocity is, by definition, easy to implement, as it targets what is undefended. The strategy does nothing to "win hearts and minds." Support for al Qaeda has dwindled to under 2% among the Sunnis of Iraq; among other groups, it doesn't register at all. Nor can atrocities advance a political agenda, or control real estate.
But the mass killings were a boon to recruitment. The slaughter of Shi'ite civilians provoked retaliatory attacks by Shi'ite militias - attacks that were often as random as the carnage that initiated them. This enabled the insurgency to recruit, albeit from a diminishing population base. In effect, Sunni radicals kept the insurgency alive by sucking the blood out of their own community.
But al Qaeda's largest harvest from "random slaughter" strategy was realized in America. Through acts of indiscriminate violence transmitted by the media, insurgents brought their war to America's living rooms. The atrocity-of-the-day is the principal informational input most Americans receive. This forms their knowledge base. The public does not live in the villages and mahalas of Iraq. Patterns of recovery, of normalcy, are not evident. This is the essence of 4th Generation Warfare. And al Qaeda is clearly winning it.
The Battle of GRPs
The volume and type of informational inputs received by the voting public can be calculated with Gross Ratings Points.
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The daily car bombing is the message the insurgents want. Extending these assumptions mathematically: There have been 12,624 pessimistic ratings points from June 2006 to June 2007, compared to 6,798 optimistic reports. These gross ratings points form the knowledge base of the viewers and telephone owners who answer polls - and of the voters who elect public officials.
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A congressionally-imposed defeat in Iraq may be averted by a swing in the polls, or more precisely, a swing in the GRPs that move the polls. Given the military's long standing Public Affairs policy of media neutrality, the administration and the Generals will have to earn the GRPs in a hostile media environment. This is difficult, but not impossible, given the substantial American center - Citizens who would prefer victory if given reason to hope.
Alternately, Congress could defy the polls. Al Qaeda is running its war on smoke and mirrors - or, more accurately, on bytes of sound and sight. Congress could act on General Petraeus' reports from the ground, rather than broadcasts generated by insurgents. This requires a simple commitment - one foreign to many in the elective branch: Leadership.
Fat Man ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keshertalk.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 16, 2007 01:05 AM
One of my biggest complaints with the administration is that they have done such a piss poor job of explaining why we are doing what we are doing.
Ineffective communication is why we are in a position of fighting among ourselves. Ineffective communication by this administration is going to make it even harder for the next admin to do the things that need to be done to protect us.
It is a terrible mistake they have made. Control the message and you can maintain influence upon the public. Let it go and this is what you get.
